Stat Boffins Predict All TEN PL RESULTS With Chelsea Given 76% Chance Of Winning Their Season Opener

As we close in on the start of the Premier League season, we thought we’d delve into some statistical analysis before the first games are played.

The boffins at FiveThirtyEight have a sophisticated model for determining who wins Premier League matches and we have gone through their predictions for the opening round of fixtures.

Most of the predicted results won’t surprise fans but, even so, it does give an intriguing insight ahead of the new campaign.

Press the next page to find out which Premier League teams are the likeliest to win their first game this weekend.

Tightly Contested Fixtures

Newcastle v West Ham is the hardest game to call this week, with FiveThirtyEight‘s prediction model giving the Hammers a 39% chance of winning, with the Magpies on 35%, and a draw 25%.

Burnley v Brighton is nearly just as close with the Seagulls slight favourites (39%) against the home side (34%) with a probability of a draw around 28%. Watford (31%) v Aston Villa (43%) is slightly more in favour of the away team, although a draw (27%) is still a likely outcome.

More One-Sided Games

FiveThirtyEight have Everton v Southampton as one of the matches that could be more one-sided. The Toffees are given a 48% chance of taking the three points, while a draw and a Saints win are seen as less likely (26%). Despite being away at Brentford for their season opener, Arsenal are favourites to come out on top (52%) with the newly-promoted Bees expected to struggle with a draw (26%) said to be likelier than a home victory (22%).

Tottenham v Manchester City is the highlight from the opening round of fixtures but Spurs are not likely to get off to a winning start (22%), Manchester City are expected to come out on top (56%) with a draw not thought to be on the cards either (22%). City rivals Manchester United are also backed to get the three points (63%) when they take on Leeds (16%) on Saturday.

Heavy Favourites

Liverpool taken on Norwich City at Carrow Road this weekend and the statisticians suggest that it will be a surprise if the Reds don’t come away with a victory. Jurgen Klopp’s side have a 69% chance of winning, compared to the Canaries’ 13%, with a draw rated at 19%.

By far the likeliest result of the weekend, though, is Chelsea securing the three points against Crystal Palace. FiveThirtyEight say the Blues have a 3 in 4 chance of winning (76%), with a draw at 17% and an Eagles win a mere 7%.

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